1. The world's largest democracy, nuclear power, growing expertise in the domain of science and

technology and a stable economic growth in recent past are some of the major elements that has added to the strategic depth in Indian foreign policy in pursuing its essential national interests in international affairs.

2. The recent political tsunami in the Arab world (Arab Spring) demonstrates the growing concerns of New Delhi to secure its national interests while dealing the Arab countries ,where all major powers has their strategic and economic interest. India has been traditionally reluctant to any regime change agenda which goes against the law of the land and the will of the sovereign people. The entire Arab region serves around 60 per cent of India's energy supply and is home to over 6 million people

belonging to Indian diaspora.

3. High political, economic, and energy stakes conditioned India's nuanced response to the Arab Spring. The geographically proximate region, especially the Persian Gulf, is vital for India. Other than evacuation of its nationals, India's reactions to the Arab Spring have been measured. India has been extremely cautious about the developments in the Persian Gulf. Indian response did not signal a sign of indifference and apathy towards the popular sentiments neither was it an endorsement of the authoritarian nature of most of the regimes. It was a reflection both of its crucial interests in the region and of its preference for stable and internally viable political states in the region.

4. To study and analyse the Foreign Policy options for India in the light of effect of Arab Spring in Arab countries and suggest a suitable approach keeping into consideration the national imperative for protecting the political, economical and energy interests.

5. Should Indian Foreign Policy imperatives remain the same post Arab Spring while dealing with Arab countries factoring in own national interest & the unique circumstances prevailing in these countries or become more aggressive, assertive & interventionist in our approach while dealing with Arab countries thus taking up leadership role in international affairs.

6. The changes brought in the Arab countries are likely to have far reaching implications on Indian Foreign Policy while dealing with the Arab countries . India had to navigate between its desire to support the popular yearning for change, freedom, and good governance and the national imperatives of protecting its political, economic, and energy interests in these troubled countries. India's positions have been situational and country specific. The measured response by India has been viewed with suspicion. By and large, India settled for following the popular trends in individual countries without appearing to be interventionist. Its responses reflected two prime

considerations, the level of unpopularity of the ruler and India's core interests in that particular country.

7. Indian silence on issues such as democratization, human rights, and governance brought into open by the Arab Spring is being viewed with suspicion. The muted and calibrated Indian reactions to the Arab Spring challenge the hopes for an assertive India in the international scene. Indian Foreign policy is being seen as taking refuge in sovereignty and non-interference. In this backdrop India needs to refine its relations with the Arab countries which poses challenge for its Foreign Policy.

8. The research has been organized into the following major chapters :-

Chapter I Introduction & Methodolgy. A brief introduction to the topic, Statement of Problem, Hypothesis, Justification of Study ,Scope & Methodology has been covered.

Chapter II Indian Forign Policy : An Overview. This chapter deals with the emergence of present Indian Foreign Policy over the years underpinning the various interests which guided its formulation.

Chapter III India's traditional relations with Arab countries. This chapter covers the traditional and historical linkages of India with Arab countries and examines the Indian interests in these countries thereby bringing out the importance of Arab countries to India.

Chapter IV Effect of Arab Spring on Arab countries and Present Situation. This chapter covers the genesis of Arab Spring, its

impact on Arab countries and the evolving unstable environment having direct bearing on India.

Chapter V Implications for India. This chapter focuses on the implications of Arab Spring on Indian national interest especially the economic ,social, political and energy security.

Chapter VI Foreign Policy Options for India. This chapter recommends policy options available with India to safeguard Indian interest in the region.

9. The material presented in the dissertation has been acquired from the sources listed below. The detailed bibliographyhas been appended at the end of the paper.

Books and Periodicals.

News papers.

Internet Sources.

10. The principal objective of a country's foreign policy is to ensure its security and safeguard its other interests against direct or indirect external threat.The Foreign policy of India has been influenced in varying degrees by its geography, history and cultural traditions , internal conditions and world situations prevalent at the time of independence. At the time of independence the leaders adopted a foreign policy that would help generate peace and cooperation in the world, and supported democracy at home and abroad without intervention in the internal affairs of other countries. At the time of independence the external environment was characterized by Cold War, arms race and nuclear conflict.

11. India, in order to consolidate the independence and for social and economic growth, needed cooperation from both US and USSR. India's international agenda comprised of five main items : freedom and independence of colonies , elimination of racial discrimination, nuclear disarmament , international cooperation for development and a strong support for UN as a harbinger of a new world order [1] . The concerns of geopolitics compelled India to forge close relationship with USSR on one hand and China on the other.

12. During the Cold War, India's foreign policy reflected strong affiliation towards socialist ideology. This was evident in India's refusal to join South East Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO) and the Baghdad Pact, its membership in the Non-Aligned Movement formed in 1961, and its

willingness to court the Soviet Union as a counterweight to the West, by signing the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in August 1971.

13. The collapse of the Soviet Union forced India to re-evaluate its foreign policy to one that gradually embraced capitalism economically with the opening of Indian economy. This resulted in India's greater integration into the global economy. India's foreign policy initiatives to favour the West were based not only on the need to liberalise the economy and benefit from Western investment, but also a dual need to counterbalance the rise of China, especially in South Asia.

14. Among India's major foreign policy initiatives in the aftermath of the Cold War was its 1992 'Look East' policy, designed to enhance India's relations with the Southeast Asian region and Japan. The effort resulted in India being accepted as a sectoral dialogue partner of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1992, a full dialogue partner in 1996, an ASEAN summit level partner in 2002, and, in 2005, a member of the East Asia Summit.

15. Post the 9/11 attacks against the US, India has emerged as an important ally to the West in combating Islamist terrorism, which also poses a threat to India's interests. In the bargain India has benefited from intelligence sharing, technology transfers, military cooperation and exercises, all of which have proved to be highly beneficial to India's defence and security interests. Yet, at the same time 9/11 terrorist attacks against the US caused problems for India by reinvigorating the US-Pakistan relationship.

16. The rise of India's international profile, is evident in the participations India has in a number of regional forums, such as: the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), G-4, G-15, G-20, G-24, G-77, India Brazil South Forum (IBSA), Indian Ocean Region-Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC), Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

17. In 2008 India founded two multilateral dialogue forums, namely the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium and the India Africa Forum, which have enabled India to further extend and consolidate India's influence throughout the Indian Ocean Region. Similarly, India has also signed defence cooperation agreements and a number of bilateral naval access agreements, including joint training/military exercises, with countries on the Indian Ocean littoral.

18. The end of the Cold War also led strategists to catapult India as a great power in global affairs. Complimenting great power aspiration has been aspirations for status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Today, a key agenda of India's foreign policy is to secure a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. India is trying hard to win the confidence and support of the developing world.

19. India has had relations with the Arab world since 1947. India's relations with the Arab world were part of its outreach as member of the non-aligned movement [2] . The key strands of India's interests in Arab world is based on energy security, foreign direct investment into the Indian economy, exports, and NRI remittances.

20. The key strands of relationship stems from the fact that Middle East is strategically important as a major supplier of energy and is also a significant export market for India, and the region employs over 3

Million Indian expatriates. Ensuring the safety of Sea Lanes Of Communication is key agenda of India to ensure an uninterrupted energy supply & is only feasible by promoting regional stability and security.

21. The improvement in relations with Africa over the years can be assuaged from the fact that bilateral trade with Africa reached US$46 billion in 2010, and is expected to increase to US$70 billion by 2014 [3] . At present ,around 2 million people make up the Indian diaspora in Africa. India's interests in Africa lies on emerging market , energy security and strategic influence. Indian energy companies also have significant operations in Nigeria, Egypt & Sudan.

22. In order to boost the relations further with Africa, the India-Africa Forum was set up in 2008. Monetary loans were provided to African nations, including US$700 million for new institutions and training programmes [4] . As a consequence of significant improvement in bilateral relations both countries have shown serious interest in developing strategic ties.

23. Soft power is another aspect which the Indian Foreign Policy has been capitalizing on recently. India's long history of civilisational and cultural links with countries across the globe offers great advantage in the global realm of affairs.

24. India along with China, offers a dynamic alternative to Western cultural values. India's film industry, 'Bollywood', is a medium for propagating Indian culture, which is further accentuated by satellite TV and internet. Yoga , Indian cuisine & cricket are other strong soft power resources for India.

25. The large Indian diaspora is another soft power resource for Indian diplomacy. These immigrants also play key roles in the political spheres of these different countries which enables improving of relations.

26. India's democratic, federal and secular model is another strong soft power resource which the Indian diplomats can leverage. Indian economic power can also be interpreted as a soft power resource as its accomplishments attract others.

27. Though Soft power is a difficult resource to leverage, India's political dispensations and diplomats have inconsistently capitalised upon these undoubted soft power resources over the last decade.

28. The key aspects of Indian Foreign Policy can be summed up as under:-

(a) Aiming to emerge as a strategically pre-eminent power in South Asia.

(b) Focussing to secure widespread international support to obtain a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Counci

(c) Striving to develop the economy to enhance trade and foreign investment.

(d) Ensuring energy security to sustain economic growth .

29. Indo - Arab ties even predate emergence as nation states. The Arabs and Indians knew each other long before and Arabs even played a crucial role in the emergence of the very notion of "Hindustan" and even in giving a name to the religion of Hinduism. The people of India were referred to as Hindus by the Arabs long before the Hindus themselves called themselves Hindus. The Arabian Sea, has a crucial role in the cultivation of relations. India's cultural links with West Asia can be traced to the early years of recorded history. There is evidence, of trade links between the Harappan civilization and that of Dilmun in the Gulf.

30. The strong historical links are further accentuated by the fact that many distinguished Arab families in many different Arab countries bear the surname al-Hindi, or that Hind is still a desirable name used by many Arab women [5] . The Sufi tradition is the result of Indo-Arab interaction and Khwaja Moinuddin Chisti, whose shrine is at Ajmer was himself an Arab. Many Arabic words can also be found in several languages particularly in Hindi and Urdu. Maulana Abul Kalam Azad, was born in Mecca and he studied at the famous al-Azhar University of Egypt. The leaders at the time of freedom movement closely monitored developments in Egypt and other countries, a trend that continued after independence. The struggle of the FLN in Algeria and President Nasser's nationalization of the Suez Canal and the Suez Crisis of 1956 were important historical developments that found India's support for Arab people. India's support for Palestinian people is one of the most enduring nature of Indo-Arab ties.

31. The major stumbling block in Indo Arab relations has been the following :-

(a) Pakistan India's insistence on linking its ties with the Arab

countries to Pakistan. In the 1990's, Indian efforts to build closer relationship with the Arab countries suffered because it was obsessively centered on the aim of isolating Pakistan.But there were not many takers for the same . Later having understood the folly,India has changed the approach to India's benefit.

(b) Indo - Israel Relations. Arab countries were not averse to any negative implications of India's economic relations with Israel. The main worry for Arab World is the "military and nuclear cooperation" between India and Israel. In some quarters of Arab World it is believed India and Israel clandestinely worked to develop India's nuclear weapons.

32. Reflecting centuries old cordial and friendly relations, India and Saudi Arabia enjoy sound economic and socio-cultural ties. The diplomatic relations were established in 1947. The visit of King Abdullah to India in 2006 resulted in signing of 'Delhi Declaration' , which imparting a fresh momentum in the bilateral relationship. The reciprocal visit by Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh, to Saudi Arabia in 2010 raised the level of bilateral engagement to 'Strategic Partnership' and the 'Riyadh Declaration' was signed. This has facilitated enhanced political, economic, security and defence cooperation.

33. Economic & Commercial Relations. Indo-Saudi economic relations have improved with remarkable growth and bilateral trade registering three-fold increase in the last few years. Saudi Arabia is the 4th largest trade partner of India and the bilateral trade was USD 25 billion in 2010-11 [6] . Saudi Arabia is India's largest supplier of crude oil,which accounts for almost one-fifth of its needs. Saudi Arabia is the 11th largest market in the world for Indian exports and is destination of more than 2.08% of India's global exports. [7] On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is the source of 5.51% of India's global imports [8] . For Saudi Arabia, India is the 5th largest market for its exports, accounting for 7.63% of its global exports. In terms of imports by Saudi Arabia, India ranks 7th and is source of around 3.77% of Saudi Arabia's total imports [9] .

34. Defence Cooperation. There has been an increase in def cooperation after visit of King Abdullah to India in January 2006 and Prime Minister's reciprocal visit to the Kingdom in 2010. Subsequently regular exchange of defence delegations and training of officers of armed forces have been taking place.

35. Indian Community in Saudi Arabia. Indian expatriates in Saudi Arabia consists of about 2 million-strong Indian community in Saudi Arabia, and the largest expatriate community in the Kingdom.They are admired by Saudi Arabia due to their expertise, sense of discipline, law abiding and peace loving nature [10] . The Haj pilgrimage forms another important facet of bilateral relations as more than 1,70,000 Indians perform Haj every year, forming the third largest contingent performing Haj.

36. Irritants in Relations. India's strategic relations with Saudi Arabia have been affected due to Saudi Arabia's relations with Pakistan. Saudi Arabia had in the past supported Pakistan's stance on the Kashmir conflict and during the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971. Indo- Soviet relations has been another irritant .

37. Indo- Bahrain ties can be traced back to generations. Bahraini poet and constitutionalist Ebrahim Al-Arrayedh grew up in Bombay, as well as 17th

century Bahraini theologians Sheikh Salih Al-Karzakani and Sheikh Ja`far bin Kamal al-Din were influential figures in the Kingdom of Golkonda and the development of Shia thought in the sub-continent. An important aspect of Indo-Bahrain relations is the fact that there are nearly 400,000 Indian nationals in Bahrain which accounts for a third of the population of Bahrain [11] .

38. Trade and Economic Relations. The policy of Bahrain Government to industrial diversification has played a key role in role in enhancing economic cooperation. Total non oil trade with Bahrain amounted to Rs. 7,034.92 ($ 1,553.43) during the period April 2010- March 2011 [12] & oil imports amounted to US$ 957.954 during the period January- September 2011 [13] .New job opportunities attracted a large number of Indians to Bahrain.

39. India and Yemen share strong historical linkages. India actively supported the Yemeni struggle for independence from the British. India was one of the first countries to recognise both the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) after the September,1962 revolution and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) after its formation on November 1967. India established the Indian mission in Sana'a in 1970. Both countries are committed to non-alignment, international peace, combating international terrorism, piracy and creation of a zone of peace in the Indian Ocean [14] . India and Yemen are important members of the Indian Ocean Rim - Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR- ARC).

40. Trade and Economic Relations. India is the second largest destination for Yemen's exports and the eighth principal source for its imports. The bilateral trade during FY 2010-2011 was put at US$ 2.25 billion, which included Yemen's exports to India valued at US$ 1.74 billion and Yemen's imports from India totaling US$ 514.37 million [15] . Indian oil & power companies have significant stakes in Yemen. Reliance Industries , Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation & IOC-OIL are operating oil blocks since 2009.

41. India and Syria enjoy friendly relations based on historical ties, common experience of imperialism and of being a colony, both have a secular, nationalist and developmental orientation, common views on many international and regional issues & both are members of NAM. In addition India's traditional support for Arab causes especially the Palestinian cause and for the return of the occupied Golan Heights to Syria bind the relations further.

42. Trade and Economic Relations. Bilateral trade between both countries during the period Apr-Jun (2011-2012) stood at US$112.7 millions. Major commodities imported from Syria include petroleum, crude & products and minerals. Major commodities exported to Syria include textiles and yarn, petroleum products, machinery & instruments, drugs, pharmaceuticals & chemicals [16] . Indian assistance provided to Syria includes US $ 25 million credit line for the rehabilitation and modernization of the Hama Iron & Steel Plant, another credit line of US$ 100 million to part finance the extension of the Tishreen Power Plant. In addition Indiaalso has two significant investments in the oil sector.

43. India and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan first signed the bilateral agreement for cooperation and friendly relations in 1947, and was later formalized in 1950 when India became a sovereign democratic republic. Both countries have good Military, cultural and economic exchanges.Jordan being

a member of the Non-Aligned Movement has enabled to forge close relations with India.

44. Trade and Economic Relations. As per MEA India was the largest export partner and ninth largest import partner of Jordan in 2008. In 2010, the India-Jordan trade volume stood at US$ 1.16 billion i.e. India's exports to Jordan stood at US$382 million in 2010 while imports were to the tune of US$783 million in 2010 [17] .

45. The key elements of India Kuwait relations are geographical proximity, trade links, cultural affinities and large number of Indian expatriates in Kuwait. Kuwait sees India as a natural trading partner and a destination for higher learning for Kuwait.India's trade with Kuwait reched US$ 12.27 bilion in 2010-11 [18] . Till 1961, Indian Rupee was the legal tender in Kuwait.

46. Trade and Economic Cooperation. Kuwait is an important destination in India's quest for energy security. Kuwait annually provides 10-11% of India's crude oil imports.In the year 2011 , the bilateral trade between India & Kuwait, crossed US$ 10 billion mark to reach an all time high of US $ 12.27 billion. In the exports from India to Kuwait in FY 2010-11, it grew by 150% to over US$ 1.95 billion, crossing US$ 1 billion mark. The non-oil trade accounted for approximately US$ 2.5 billion while petroleum exports from Kuwait to India were approximately US$ 9.77 billion [19] . Indian nationals accounted to around 640,000 are the largest expatriate community in Kuwait. The total remittance from Kuwait to India is estimated to be about US$ 3.5 billion annually [20] .

47. The Sultanate of Oman is a strategic partner in the Gulf. Both countries are linked by historical maritime trades, close contact of royal family with India and the role of the Indian community in the building of Oman.

48. Trade and Economy. India and Oman have mutually beneficial relations in the economic front . India is ranked fifth largest source of imports into Oman in year 2010. In year 2010, India ranked second as the destination of Omani non-oil exports and third as the top destination of Omani crude oil exports. In the financial year 2010- 2011, bilateral trade jumped to US$ 5.1 billion from US$ 4.5 billion in 2009-10 [21] .Balance of trade is in Oman's favour due to export of fertilizers and spot purchase of oil & gas by India. There are 581,832 legally registered Indian workers in Oman.Of the total population of 3.2 million, the over 700000 Indians make up for the largest single expatriate community. [22] .

49. India relations with Tunisia has been traditionally cordial and friendly. The first Indian Ambassador was posted in Tunisia in 1976. Tunisia opened its Mission in New Delhi in 1981. Tunisian leaders openly acknowledge India's support extended for its freedom struggle. Both countries perceive fundamentalism as a major threat and are desirous of cooperating in controlling the spread of fundamentalism and terrorism, & have also taken a common stand on the issue in international forums. In October 1995, India and Tunisia issued a "Joint Declaration on Combating International Terrorism, Drug Trafficking and Organised Crime".

50. Trade and Economy. Tunisia is a regular source for phosphates ,a primary component for our fertilizer industry, since 1950s. India accounts for over 50% of Tunisia's global phosphoric acid exports.Indian exports to Tunisia include mobile telephones, earth moving equipment, machinery, articles of iron and steel, marine products, sugar, tea, pulses, raw tobacco, finished leather, fine chemicals, polyethylene and yarn [23] . The resident Indian community in Tunisia is miniscule and estimated at about 150.

51. Strong historical ties bind both nations as both are two of the world's oldest civilizations. Both India and Egypt have enjoyed history of close contact from ancient times which can be traced back to Asoka's edicts, which refers to his relations with Egypt. Mahatma Gandhi and Saad Zaghloul had common goals on the independence of their countries. This relationship was carried forward by exceptionally close friendship between Gamal Abdel Nasser and Jawaharlal Nehru. This relation led to the signing of Friendship Treaty between the two countries in 1955. An offshoot of the relation has been the Non-Aligned Movement led by Nehru and Nasser.

52. Trade and Economy. Trade between India and Egypt during the last financial year (July 2011-June 2012) increased by 33% from US$ 3.2 billion to US$ 4.2 billion, leaving India with trade deficit of about US$ 350 million; India is now Egypt's 7th largest trading partner. Since FY 2006-07, India has been among the top five importers of Egyptian products; Egyptian goods exported during the last one year alone have grown by 36.41%, rising from US$ 1.7 billion to US$ 2.3 billion. The rapid increase in India's imports has pushed it to the position of the second largest destination for Egyptian exports after Italy. Crude oil and LNG account for almost US$ 1.97 billion. Indian exports to Egypt during the last one year increased by 29.36%, rising from US$ 1.5 billion to US$ 1.94 billion, placing India in 11th position for Egyptian imports [24] .

53. India and Libya enjoy strong bilateral ties. Indian Mission was established in Tripoli in 1969. India has traditionally supported Libya in international forums. High level bilateral visits had taken place since 2003, when India had appreciated lifting of sanctions imposed on Libya.Crude oil production of Libya is about 1.79 million barrels a day [25] .

54. Economic and Commercial Relations. As per latest statistics for the year 2010-11 (April - Dec), the bilateral trade stood at $584.58 Million compared to total trade of US$ 844.62 Million for the year 2009-10. The bilateral trade began showing significant upward trend since 2004-05, peaking to US $ 1,366.65 Million in the year 2007-08 as compared to US $ 29.12 Million for the year 2003-04 .Indian community in Libya were estimated to be 18,000 prior to the recent conflict in Libya [26] .

55. Political relations with Algeria was established in the year 1962 . Relations have been cordial since beginning..President, Bouteflika visited India on 24-29 January 2001 as the Chief Guest during Republic Day Celebrations. Both nations are part of the Non-Aligned Movement. Algeria is a member of the African Union, and supports India's candidature for a permanent seat in UN.

56. Economic Relations. In January 2012, The Ministry of External Affairs of the Government of India stated that "Bilateral trade [between Algeria and India] is showing a positive trend; it has grown from US$ 55 million in 2001 to US$ 3.4 billion in 2011 [27] ." In recently times , India and Algeria have taken steps to increase mutual cooperation in the oil sector.

57. Bilateral Cooperation and Assistance. India had provided

Algeria with monetary assistance for the earth quake victims in year 2003. In addition Indian Space Research Organisation launched the Algerian Satellite Alsat 2A into the orbit in July 2010.

58. India's relations with Morocco can be traced back to the 14th century when Ibn Batuta traveled to India. Both countries have enjoyed cordial and friendly relations and the bilateral relations have seen significant growth. Significant bilateral visits have taken place.

59. Trade and Commerce. India is one of the major markets for Moroccan phosphate and its derivatives. Bilateral trade has grown considerably in the past 10 years and reached has reached US $ 1.2 in 2011. Indian nationals in Morocco account for about 200-250 [28] .

60. The most vital aspect of India's relations with Arab countries has been the economic aspect following the on set of globalization and liberalization. This has materialized in terms of various memoranda of understanding, joint ventures and business contracts. In addition Palestine has proved to be a catalyst in strengthening Indo‐Arab relations. Despite good relations with Israel, India has always espoused the Palestinian cause while at the same time has criticized Israeli steps which hindered peace process. India has attempted to do a fine balancing act. It can be summed up that India's Arab policy is based on the following aspects :-

(a) Opposition to imperialism and expansionism.

(b) Common principles of peace and co‐operation.

(c) Restoration of India's cultural, economic and commercial links with the Arab world.

61. The 18th and 19th century witnessed the colonisation of majority of Arab countries. The discovery of oil in Persia in 1908 & subsequently in Saudi Arabia in 1938 has been one of the significant development in the Arab world. France, the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy. Though most of these states gained independence in the 1950s and 1960s, but the region has traditionally been characterized by dictators, hereditary monarchies, long serving military regimes and autocrats. These forms of rule deprived these countries from the winds of change .

62. The Arab countries are mostly deprived of Human Rights,lack of freedom of public opinion and expression, fear of regimes, corruption, favouritism and nepotism. Transparency has receded giving way to all sorts of malpractices and misuse of power. All this led to economic degradation and a fall in national income in most of the Arab countries during the past 60 years.

63 The main reasons for Arab Spring in mostly affected countries are as under:-

(a) Tunisia. The revolution was sparked by a youth setting himself ablaze due to poverty and the resultant confrontation with security forces.

(b) Egypt. The movement was a call for better economic conditions and opposition to inheritance of power.

(c) Libya It was against suppression and the rule of one man without any political institutions.

(d) Yemen. it was against the dictatorship of one man and his tribe.

(e) Syria. It was against family and sectarian dictatorship.

64. Though this revolution was triggered by different factors specific to their own unique socio-economic and political structures but they have one unifying factor that they have been all youth-led movements.

65. However the roots of the Arab Spring lay in the following factors:-

(a) An entrenched dictatorship/autocracy/monarchy vs the people's desire for freedom and democracy.

(b) Widespread corruption on the part of the ruling elite.

Frequent violation of human rights and brutal repression by the national security force.

The rich - poor divide getting wider.

High cost of living that was constantly on the rise and low income.

Lack of adequate job opportunities and the high rate of unemployment among the educated youth.

Rejection of the idea of the "inheritance" of presidency.

Social network media namely, facebook and twitter ,which served to rally the youth.

66. There has been a monarchical exception in the Arab Spring which makes one believe that monarchies could be more resilient during popular unrest. With the exception of Bahrain to an extent , other monarchies were not seriously affected. Arab Spring has brought to fore the role of monarchy in regime stability also.

67. The Arab Spring has altered the politics in the Arab world by bringing new political forces. The Islamists have emerged as political parties in Egypt and Tunisia. It can concluded that Islamists have been the real gainers of the undergoing socio-political transformation.

68. In Tunisia, the formulation of a new constitution is by now under way after the termination of election for the Constituent Assembly in October 2011. Tunisia also witnessed the arrival of the Islamists in the power struggle after decades of alienation by Ben Ali. Tunisia was the first country to observe regime change when the Islamic An-Nahda party won the majority of votes. Hamadi Jebali, Secretary General of An-Nahda, is the new Prime Minister and the Islamic party is presently working in close alliance with Progressive Democratic Party. Though at present their roadmap is devoid of any Islamic rhetoric, it is concentrating more on the model of civic governance. The biggest challenge to Tunisian democracy is likely to be from the Salfists who represent the Islamic fundamentalists.

69. The Freedom and Justice Party, a political arm of Muslim Brotherhood ,has made a clean sweep in the Parliamentary elections,but the liberals failed to make an impact in the first ever fair election. The departure of the army from the helm of the affairs also brings to an end to the era of ruler-army nexus in Egypt. It is not only Muslim Brotherhood which gained ground, but there other Islamic groups like the Salafists have also risen to a considerable position and are dominating national politics. So far, the Islamists have adopted the strategy of adjustment . The surfacing of several liberal parties like Third Current, Free Egyptian Party, Egyptian Social Democratic Party and the Tagammu Party is a positive sign and signals evolution of a multi-party system which had been absent for decades. Presently Mohamed Morsi has been elected as the new president in June 2012 but he has grabbed unbridled power for himself , which has led to violent outburst from the masses in the country.

70. The departure of Colonel Gaddafi after the involvement of the NATO set the stage for democratic practice in the country. In July, 2012, the election was held for the General National Congress, the first democratic election in Libya in half a century. In contrast to Egypt and Tunisia, in the Libyan election, liberal forces won the elections. The poor show of the Islamists may be accredited to the time-honored Sufi character of Libyan Islam and people's non- proclivity towards Islamic brand of politics. In addition, during Gaddafi's regime, most of Islamist never surfaced and were aslo not organised like Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt or An-Nahda of Tunisia.

71. The democratic process in Libya has been unsuccessful in bringing about the political solidity such as the one in Egypt or Tunisia. The country has turned out to be more delicate and vulnerable. It is also the tribal character of society in Libya that is causing disintegration and disorder of the social fabrics. Libyan society is now both horizontally and vertically disjointed and neo-tribalism has replaced the old national uniqueness and loyalty.

72. Political concessions approved by King Mohammed VI led to referendum on constitutional reforms. In dissimilarity with protesters in other countries, the Moroccans who initiated the Feb 20 movement for transformation have not voiced for the king's overthrow. Instead, their focal point has been on significant constitutional reforms, which restricts the powers of the king and consolidates the theory of separation of powers. The demonstrations right through the country have been generally peaceful and free of violent expression.

73. Similarly, in the recent elections too, the Islamist won the majority of seats and the King designated Abdelilah Benkirane, an Islamist figure, as Prime Minister. The delicate balance is to be seen between the monarchy and the new Islamists forces, and how they are adjusted in national politics.

75. Except for Syria, nearly each country affected by the Arab Spring is steadily moving towards some sort of stability. The bloodiest upshot of the Arab Spring has been the incessant war in Syria. Syria is subject to Sunni-Alawite conflict but the Arab Spring has aggravated the crisis. The continuing civil war between Free Syrian Army, the main umbrella group for fighters &

the Syrian Army has resulted in the death of more than 30,000 people. By September 2012, 2,34,000 Syrian refugees had registered in neighboring countries about half of whom left during August.The end of continuing unrest is nowhere in sight [29] .

76. The violent clashes between the regime and the rebels reflect the deep hatred between the Sunni majority and the ruling Alwite minority. Syrian civil war has all the potential to become the scene of an international conflict. So far, no endeavor, including the U.N.-Arab League Mission led by Kofi Annan, could contain this strife. Even the new U.N.-Arab League envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi confessed that he was not certain that he would be able to end the conflict.

77. President Saleh signed the GCC sponsored peace process on 23 Nov 11, in which he agreed to step down and set the stage for transfer of power to his vice president.A presidential election was held on 21 Feb 12 in which AbdRabbuh Mansur Al-Hadi (the only candidate) won 99.8% of vote. The new president has been mandated to lead a two year political transition process including a fully inclusive National Dialogue, constitutional & electoral reforms ending with full Presidential & Parliamentary elections in 2014 [30] .In addition monetary assistance has been received from World Bank to improve the economic condition. The developments as of now put an end to more than 12 months of violence & civil unrest across Yemen.

78. After the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) mediated an agreement between the opposition groups and President Abdullah Saleh to leave the Presidentship, Yemen underwent the Presidential election in February 2012 and acting President Abd Rabbuh Mansur al-Hadi won 99.8% of vote and was was elected as the President. But the elections have failed to amalgamate a society that is divided by cultural and tribal loyalties. The Houthis, an insurgent Shiite group, boycotted the elections which reflects the political division in Yemen and leaves enough room for trouble in future. In addition new governance could not rein in the new resurgent groups operating in the name of north-south and sectarian entity.

79. Bahrain's political arrangement has been unable to keep tempo with demands for representation for the majority Shia population and has almost responded to unrest with an iron fist [31] . King Hamad did attempt to provide some amount of economic concession by giving out financial relief to each Bahraini family & also initiated judicial, security & economic measures. However as per Amnesty report, these reforms appear to have scratched the surface as human rights crisis still continue [32] .During the unrest, the old sectarian fault lines between Shiites and Sunnis surfaced. To soothe anti-government protestors, the King dismissed several cabinet ministers and pardoned political prisoners, including the Shia opposition leader Hassan Mushaimaa, who had been in exile in Lebanon.

80. The condition in Bahrain can be seen in similarity to that in Syria where minority Sunnis rule over majority Shiites. It was GCC under the direction of Saudi Arabia which suppressed the revolt in Bahrain. Besides, Bahrain has also turned out to be a battle ground of power between Iran and Saudi Arabia..

81. The situation at hand appears to be calm but one cannot rule out the likelihood of repetition in the near future because of the unpredictable nature of the region. Furthermore, Iran may endeavor to capitalise on the amplified sectarian tension.

82. Subsequent to the initial protest the government upturned the rise in fuel prices, but protestors still persisted with their demands for reforms. The King in an attempt to soothe the masses have dismissed three prime ministers from the time when the of Arab Spring started, finally paving way for Fayez al- Tarawneh to head the cabinet to deliver reform agenda [33] . Frequent and small scale protests and turmoil still continues in Jordan to keep the system off balance.

83. Saudi Arabia is also transiting through 'low level' sectarian conflict. The Shiite minority in the eastern part is making recurrent protests seeking rights and freedom. The king dolled out economic concessions in the form of US $ 130 billion. Subsequently Municipal elections were held in Sep 2011. Reforms were also initiated for women's participation in municipal election in 2015 and for their nomination to Consultative Assembly.

84. Political reforms were announced in reaction to the spate of protests. The most noteworthy reforms include the granting of Consultative Council (Majilis) of Oman ample legislative and audit powers [34] . Sultan Qaboos reorganized the Council of Ministers and replaced three top administration officials. A new body was also shaped to manage the country's economy while Sultan Qaboos promised extra 50,000 jobs [35] . The generally affirmative Omani views of Sultan Qaboos, attached with the economic and supplementary political reform measures caused the unrest to subside.

85. As a consequence of the protests that demanded political transparency and a clamp down on corruption within the government, the Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Al Mohammed Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah, resigned on 29 Nov 2011. The government used financial generosity like budgets laden with subsidies and salary increases as well as used oppressive measures in terms of imprisonment which kept the public display of dissent relatively restricted. As Kuwait is a relatively wealthy society where it appears that most citizens do not want to risk their economic wellbeing to bring the downfall of Al Sabah rule [36] .

86. From the events as it unfolds in Arab world ,it can be generalized that the historic phenomenon of Arab Spring reflects the following which has wide implications for non- Arab countries also :-

(a) The 'deep structural malisie' of Arab society in general.

(b) The democratic aspiration of the marginalised section of Arab society, particularly the youth, for a dignified livelihood, a kind of social, economic and political reform that ensures respect for individual identity, dignity and social equity.

(c) The inspiration for this movement is deeply Arab-Islamic, rather than tradition of western democracy and therefore eventhough the movement aspires for 'democratic space' but it does not necessarity imagine this democractic space in terms of western democratic values and principles.

(d) It is the rainbow of multiple ideological currents vis islamism, nationalism, tribalism, sectarism and localism with each competing with each other for representation in future power-arrangement but also uniting for loosely defined national purpose against external challanges.

(e) The movement is likely to have long term implication for the stability and security of the region.

(f) The relatively peaceful, leaderless, unorganised but having mass element only reienforces the notion that people remains the motor of wider social and political changes and in the process totally delegitimise the violence-prone politics and discourses of radical/militant Islamic organisations in the name of 'islamic' transformation of Muslim societies.

87. India was caught unaware when confronted with the fast-moving developments that engulfed the entire Middle Eastern region from Morocco in the West to Bahrain in the Persian Gulf. India had to navigate between its desire to support the popular yearning for change, freedom, and good governance and the hard-nosed national imperatives of protecting its political, economic, and energy interests in these troubled countries [37] . The safety of over six million diaspora in the region was another consideration into the cautious response by India. Initial reactions were cautious enough to wait and see that the ruling regimes would survive.

88. India's responses reflected two prime considerations, the level of unpopularity of the ruler and India's core interests in that particular country with some notable exceptions to this trend. In the event of any major upheaval , India has to brace itself for one of the biggest evacuation programmes [38] .Foreign Minister S. M. Krishna eloquently summed up India's position "India does not believe in interfering in the affairs of another country. We will take the cue at an appropriate time depending on how they want India to help. India will be willing to be of some assistance to them. But let the situation arise." [39] Indian response can be summed up based on the following considerations :-

(a) Energy Security. India's most pressing consideration was ensuring steady supply of oil & natural gas from the Persian Gulf. This interest was best served if the status quo prevailed in these countries rather than political upheaval.

(b) Indian Diaspora. The dangers the Indian people would be subjected to as a result of the wide spread political unrest in the region.

(c) Balance of Power. India felt the traditional balance of power in the region has been affected due to reduced US influence in the region, Iran's nuclear ambitions & increased tension between Iran & Saudi Arabia.

(d) Ideological Influence on India. India felt these revolts may have an ideological influence on India's domestic Muslim population. The issue at hand has been the botheration of rise of Islamists in power in these countries like Muslim Brotherhood , who have a record of rhetorical hostility to India over its suppression of Kashmiri separatists.

(e) Western Intervention. India has been traditionally against external intervention in the domestic affairs of any country. This aspect has been aptly enunciated by Indian opposition to mediation in Kashmir issue also. Indian argument has been that external intervention will also provide legitimate reason for Iran to pursue its nuclear ambition.

89. The big test which lay before Indian diplomacy was to appropriately read the unfolding events across the Arab world and take steps that would guard India's vital national interests in the region. India, cautiously identified itself with the popular aspirations of the peoples, without estranging itself from the rulers and establishments of Arab countries. Indian policy were custom-made to fit the unique circumstances prevailing in each of the Arab countries.

90. Trade and investment. The Gulf region remains a favourite trading associate for India and the trade statistics have been constantly going up principally with countries like the UAE & Saudi Arabia. The UAE is India's foremost non-oil trading partner in the world with a total trade of 43,469.50 million dollars. Saudi Arabia is the fourth largest non-oil trading partner with a

total trade of 21,004.57 million dollars [40] . The Gulf countries see at India as a fast rising economy which holds the probability to compete with the major world economies. Attracting Foreign Direct Investment from the Gulf region is also a priority for India. As per the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, from April 2000 to October 2010 the UAE was the top investor in India from the region with investments worth US$ 1,815.29 million, followed by Oman which has invested US$ 326.55 million. During the same period, Saudi Arabia invested US$ 31.59 million, Bahrain US$ 26.78 million, Kuwait US$ 15.70 million and Qatar US$ 1.13 million [41] . Most Indian conglomerates and emerging multinational corporations-such as Tata, Birla, Reliance, Mahindra and Mahindra, and L & T-are active in the Middle East [42] .

91. Energy Security.

(a) Securing long term uninterrupted energy supply is of main importance for India in the region. India is presently the fourth leading energy consuming country in the world and it possibly will go up to third spot in next couple of decades. India's annual GDP growth at the rate of eight per cent would entail further industrial growth which would require more energy supply. Gulf countries are already the main crude suppliers to India with Saudi Arabia at the top supplying 14,049.15 million tonnes followed by UAE at 5,448.84 million tonnes, respectively [43] .

(b) Importance of Political Relations. Major oil companies on both sides are either state-controlled or heavily dependent upon the state. A modicum of correct political relations is thus a pre-condition for an uninterrupted flow of energy supplies.

92. Expatriate Labourers. The Indian diaspora in the Gulf is a major resource of foreign remittances. According to the World Bank report on the Remittances and Migration, India is the top remittance receiving country in the world with US$ 55 billion of remittance in 2010 [44] . The Reserve Bank of India estimates that for the period of 2006-07 to 2009-10, the Gulf region accounted for an average of 27 per cent of the total remittance inflows to India. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are the major source countries for the remittance. In the year 2008-09, the remittances from the Gulf reached US$ 14, 430 millions constituting 30.7 per cent of the total remittances received during that financial year surpassing that of the North America [45] .

93. Military Cooperation. The growing threats of Islamic extremism, terrorism and maritime piracy have become concerns for both India and the Gulf countries. There is a growing concern over the rise of criminal activities, money laundering and illegal arms trade between the two regions. India also has defence cooperation agreements with UAE, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia [46] .

94. Fighting Piracy. The recent spurt in the piracy activities off the Gulf of Aden in the Indian Ocean has affected both India and the Gulf countries. Cooperation with the Gulf countries in fighting piracy would also strengthen India's presence in the strategic waters of the Indian Ocean. India has already deployed its naval ships to deter the pirates.

95. Instability in Arab Countries.

(a) Threat to Vital Choke Pts. Instability in Arab world automatically leads to soaring prices in the oil markets . Instability also leads to threat to vital choke points like Strait of Hormuz. India's dependence on Gulf region for oil and other trade will get affected due to threat to these vital choke points, as it would lead to soaring prices of commodities in world market. The political matrix in Yemen also affects the security of lines of communication in a big way. India's endeavour to maintain its current economic growth rate and its aspirations for a double digit annual growth rate in the future are highly dependent on uninterrupted energy supply at a moderate market price. Apart from oil, India also shares huge non-oil trade relations with these countries.

(b) Disrupiton of Natural Gas Supply. In the case of natural gas , pricing was less of an issue and the main concern was about supply as India is dependent for over 95% of its gas imports on Gulf countries. Natural gas is dependent on huge capital intensive infrastructure that is vulnerable to political violence.

96. Indian Diaspora. The safety and security of the five million strong diaspora in the Gulf in the eventuality of a crisis poses major challenge for India to evacuate them. India faced difficulties in evacuating the 18,000 Indian nationals in Libya.There are 14,000 Indians in Yemen, 350,000 in Bahrain, over 380,000 in Oman and 1.42 million in Saudi Arabia [47] .

97. Balance of Power. The Arab countries have become vary of US as they consider it to have betrayed Mubarak a long standing ally of US. Subsequently with the nuclear ambitions of Iran, the Arab countries are looking to seek closer ties with Pakistan , India or China. This has direct bearing on India as it can influence the region with its soft power status. The region post Arab Spring has become dynamic in inter state relations. Indian stand on any country needs to balance the equation with Pakistan as it does not forego chance to portray India as one of the enemies of Islamic nations in the OIC. India's stand also need to reflect its aspirations to become permanent member in UN, as it needs to secure backing of Arab countries.

98. Inflation. India has been experiencing double digit inflation since 2010 onwards , which is directly linked to rising global commodity prices including oil. Each 10$ increase in price of a barrel of oil was calculated to be adding a half percentage point to the inflation rate [48] .Arab Spring has resulted in the loss of major influential assets of ONGC & other private companies in these countries.This has severly affected the energy security of the country . Inorder to make good the loss of these companies , the price of petrol has been hiked which has a domino effect on the market. This aspect has a spiraling effect on the Indian economy in the long run as it is already dealing with high inflation.

99. Responsible Governments. If revolutions in the region paves way for democratically elected government, it would be in India's interest as the relation would remain healthy and mutually beneficial.

100. Indian Soft Power. The region provides a host of opportunity to showcase its soft power in the enlarged democratic space . India can assist these countries in sharing its expertise in democratic practices . Election Commission was called up by Egypt to assist in their elections. Such display of soft power status of India in international forum will enhance Indian image

among comity of nations and will also enable forging strong relations with these countries.

101. The repercussions of Arab Spring is likely to have few indirect implications on India also. These are as under:-

(a) Civil Unrest in India. The mass unrest witnessed in Arab countries gives a cue to Indian masses also to voice their protest against various issues especially corruption, rape and bad administration. The Jan Lokpal agitation started by Anna Hazare and his group was in similar lines , though for various other reasons it did not materialize into mass movement .

(b) Uprising in J&K. External intervention in Libya is an apt example where foreign powers can interfere without the consent of the state leading to a third party intervention. If uprising as seen in J&K in the year 2010 comes up again , intervention by other countries is a possibility.

102. India has supported democracy and has always been against the policy of external intervention. In observance to this core principle, India has taken the right step during the Arab Spring and its stand on Syria is vindication of this aspect, both for the sake of policy of non-intervention and Responsibility to Protect. At the NAM Summit held in Iran, Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh again reiterated that any resolution to the Syrian predicament should be Syria-led alone.

103. Indian position on the issue with the affected countries have been widely appreciated throughout. India walked the tight rope by not antagonizing the exisiting regimes as well as the opposing masses. Any Indian illustration in future also should be guided by its own progressive

national interest and it will be right to keep in mind that any move in haste or under pressure may have a relentless criticism in international forums.

104. With the growing recognition of India as a growing global power and its status as the world's largest democracy,